The ongoing drug war in Sinaloa has opened a Pandora’s box, the outcome of which is unpredictable: no one knows who might win, nor how the criminal organization or the region’s landscape will be shaped.
For several decades, Sinaloans and criminal groups coexisted “peacefully.” Sinaloa was the cradle of drug trafficking thanks to the Chinese community that arrived in the region at the end of the 19th century. They discovered that the mountains were conducive to the opium poppy, the cursed flower, so they planted the flower for opium consumption, which was legal in the state and in Culiacán.
There were places to consume opium, “smoking pits.” But, in the early 1930s, Asians were expelled from Sinaloa and Sonora. So, farmers, merchants, politicians, mayors, and others entered the “exotic” business and snatched away their monopoly and the opium trade to the United States.

Those early opium traffickers were called “gomeros” and no one in Mexico cared about them, only the United States, which had banned its use in the mid-1920s. Unlike other regions, here they only trafficked to the neighboring country to the north and even “protected” Sinaloa residents from robbery, kidnapping, and extortion.
All the families that formed part of the Sinaloa Cartel in recent years are related to each other; some have very close relatives. Without having to go too far, Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán and Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada are “compadres” because they baptized their children. The Coronel family, the Beltrán Leyva family, the Torres Félix family, the Esparragoza family, and the Carrillo family, to name a few of the most famous names, maintained businesses with legitimate entrepreneurs, with investments that benefited various sectors.

A recent governor claimed that nearly 40% of Sinaloa’s GDP was generated by drug trafficking money; this was reflected in real estate investments, restaurant openings, and various businesses or unnecessary expenses, such as the purchase of luxury cars or jewelry. These families are connected by marital ties or patronage, which reinforced their influence and internal trust within the Sinaloa Cartel.
All of the above ended with the current dispute between the two factions fighting for territorial control: the “mayiza” and the “chapiza”.
Revelations from a former Mayo security chief
In his statement, the kingpin indicated that he would meet with Governor Rubén Rocha Moya and the former director of the UAS, Héctor Melesio Cuén.

Four days after El Mayo Zambada and Joaquín Guzmán López arrived at the Santa Teresita airport in Texas, my colleague Ioan Grillo and I published a report that contradicted the prevailing narrative that the legendary drug lord and El Chapo’s son had surrendered in the United States.
Our version, published on the Crash Out website on July 29, 2024, stated: “El Mayo Zambada was lured to a meeting in Culiacán, the capital of the state of Sinaloa […]. Guzmán López, El Chapo’s son and El Mayo’s godson, planned to betray him and make a deal with the United States.”
The information about this betrayal on a farm in Huertos del Pedregal was provided to us by a former security chief for El Mayo, who had recently been released from prison and requested anonymity. Days later, the drug lord himself confirmed it in a letter shared by his lawyer, Frank Pérez, and reported by national and international media.
The same source now gives us more details about what happened before and after Zambada’s kidnapping: “El Mayo also ordered his son, Ismael Zambada, Sicarios, Mayito Flaco, not to start the war against the Chapitos.” However, he began arming himself and recruiting men, knowing that his group didn’t have an army, unlike its rivals. He also sought alliances with his father’s friends.
Among the key figures who responded were El Chapo Isidro, El Guano, and Los Cabrera, who, unlike the Mayos, did have armies of well-armed gunmen trained in the war against their enemies. The Cabreras, for example, defeated the powerful Zetas in the La Laguna region during the dispute over that region between 2010 and 2014. When they were eliminated, the violence in Coahuila ended.
The source consulted emphasized that the Mayos knew that Archivaldo Guzmán, another of El Chapo’s sons, was buying large quantities of weapons and recruiting a small army of more than 2,000 men to wage war against the mob of the “Man with the Hat,” as they used to refer to Zambada.
After their father’s downfall, “they want to have all the power, control all of Sinaloa,” said the former security chief. Previously, they had already won their dispute against the Beltrán Leyva clan and defeated other “senior executives,” such as Dámaso López and his son, El Mini Lic.
Los Chapitos are beginning to “gain ground.”

Iván Archivaldo began to venture into other drug businesses in 2021. “When the Chapitos took control, they began to act like Los Zetas: collecting cuotas, kidnapping businessmen, something the Sinaloa Cartel always rejected because they argued that their business was drug trafficking and not interfering with the population,” says the former head of security for El Mayo.
Even before, Mayito Flaco had wanted to prepare for a confrontation for control of the territory, but Zambada opposed it. Even after they betrayed him, from prison he reiterated his order that there would be no war. “With violence, we all lose,” Zambada stated at his last hearing.
But when the narco-war began on September 9, 2024, the Mayos began leaking the locations of the Chapitos’ top brass. Thus, José Ángel Canobbio Inzunza, alias El Güerito, was arrested on February 19, 2025, marking the most severe blow to the financial structure of the group led by Iván Archivaldo and Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar.
El Güerito was Iván Archivaldo’s right-hand man and managed the group’s finances; he was also one of the 29 extradited by Claudia Sheinbaum’s government to the United States. Canobbio Inzunza was the first to smuggle chemical precursors from China into Sinaloa, and perhaps to the entire country, to set up laboratories and manufacture the famous fentanyl in Sinaloa.
El Güerito is the son of Alejandro Canobbio, who ran a pharmacy on Colón and Aquiles Serdán streets in Culiacán in the 1980s. “His mother is Mrs. Rafaela Inzunza, Falita, originally from Rosa Morada. Falita’s brothers were prominent drug traffickers, already smuggling kilos of cocaine from Colombia to the neighboring country to the north.”
He says one of them was shot dead, and his grave is near that of Chalino Sánchez, a singer of the time, on the northern outskirts of the city of Culiacán.
The technology of elite US units

To try to elucidate the future of the Sinaloa Cartel, DOMINGA interviewed prominent journalists specializing in drug trafficking and sources—some of whom requested anonymity—from Sinaloa who are well-versed in how both groups operate.
They focused their opinions on three topics: whether US law enforcement or intelligence agencies are in Sinaloa cooperating with Mexican authorities; they addressed who is winning the conflict; and finally, their expectations for how the Sinaloa Cartel’s map might look at the end of its internal dispute.
The interviewees agreed that there is some involvement by US agencies, but not necessarily in person, but rather through technology and advice to Mexican security forces. They also agree that El Mayo’s men are winning the battle and that the organization’s new structure and leadership will be formed by the “clans” that have joined the Zambada family.
Juan Veledíaz, director of the newspaper El Sol de Sinaloa and author of two books about the Mexican army, El general sin memoria (2010) and Jinetes de Tlatelolco (2017), says that the presence of US agencies on the ground is quite possible.
“We don’t know, we haven’t seen them, we have no evidence, but due to technological advancements, what we’ve reviewed in military documents shows that it’s not unnecessary for them to be physically there. Technology allows you to do what ground personnel would do from a drone or a remote station. The technology available to the army’s elite units does allow for these types of operations, but remotely.”
Veledíaz predicted how the implosion of the Sinaloa Cartel would play out: “I believe that a structure like the one that each of the groups that make it up have already has, at this point, a very deep fracture, where the clans around the Zambada family are the ones who, according to reports from the authorities, apparently have hegemony in certain areas of the state.
“The evidence on the ground demonstrates this, and one of them is the number of people arrested, the number of laboratories destroyed, and the number of weapons seized. Reports from the Federal Public Security Secretariat and the Ministry of Defense, as well as the National Guard and the Navy, indicate that the attacks have been even in terms of seizures and arrests. However, in terms of territorial control, there has been an advance by the clans and families associated with the Zambadas. I believe there is a turning point that has been occurring in recent months, which is the most evident aspect,” Veledíaz concluded.
La Mayiza has recovered the territory controlled by Los Chapitos.

An interviewee who requested anonymity confirmed that there is indeed a presence of US agents:
“In Culiacán society, it is generally known that agents from US agencies are involved in operations against this war between the Mayos and Chapos. Regarding the conflict, the perception from within Culiacán is clear: the Mayos have already recovered 90% of the territory previously controlled by the Chapos throughout the state […]. The Mayos are sweeping through the entire city and surrounding municipalities, exterminating the remaining Chapos.”
He added that the Chapos are now sneaking into Culiacán to commit robberies against citizens, such as car theft, ATM robberies, and highway toll booths.
“There are still some towns where the Chapos are still fighting, such as some fields in Navolato and some towns in Concordia, El Rosario, and Mazatlán itself, which has also been recaptured by the Mayos. But there are still Chapos to be exterminated in that southern part of the state; as for the northern part, from Mocorito, Salvador Alvarado, Guasave, Sinaloa de Leyva, Ahome, El Fuerte, and Choix, it is already almost 100 percent dominated by the Mayos in alliance with El Chapo Isidro and the Cabreras.”
Regarding how the Sinaloa Cartel could stand at the end of the conflict, the figure emphasized that it is already clear that the new bosses will be Mayito Flaco and El Chapo Isidro. “I believe the division into cells would have occurred due to the absence of both figures […]. The sub-commands supporting the cause of the ‘Man in the Hat’ will obviously also have their share of power; they will be assigned part of the recovered territory, but undoubtedly the main leaders are in that order: first Mayito Flaco, then El Chapo Isidro, and perhaps the Cabreras from Durango in third place,” he concluded.
US agencies are behind the significant arrests
‘El Chapo Isidro’ identified as the head of the criminal organization

Journalist Ismael Bojórquez, who has directed Ríodoce in Culiacán for 22 years, specializing in drug trafficking issues, agreed that US agencies are behind significant arrests.
“So far, we have no evidence that US agents are involved in the operations of the ministry headed by Omar García Harfuch. However, we have no doubt that they are participating, as they almost always have, especially in major arrests. We must keep in mind that there is now significant pressure from the US government against ours, and this further fuels our belief that there are agents operating side by side with Mexican federal forces. With García Harfuch, but also with the Navy, with whom they have always had a better relationship than with the Army.”
Regarding which side is “winning” in the drug war, Bojórquez emphasized: “One year into the conflict, I think the most worn-out side is the Chapo cartel. They’ve arrested and annihilated almost all of their commanders, and they’ve been losing ground; this can be seen in Culiacán, but also in the municipalities. On the other hand, it’s clear that the federal government’s actions have been directed primarily against their structures. I think they’re also being affected [by the Chapitos cartel] because groups like Chapo Isidro’s have sided with the Mayos.”
Finally, the director of Riodoce affirmed that the Sinaloa Cartel isn’t going to disappear as such; it will be reconfigured, but it won’t disappear. “Until a decade ago, they functioned as united families, helping each other, doing business together, and holding family parties. Since El Chapo was caught, this began to change. Víctor Emilio Cázares was already in prison, the Esparragozas were almost out of business, and the Caros have been on their own for many years now.”
The Mayos and the Chapitos tolerated each other but didn’t accept each other, which is why this war has been so fierce. “It doesn’t really matter if one side lives or the doesn’t,” he says. “The cartel’s roots are very deep. Whoever wins this war, it will be reconfigured, but it will not die.”
Source: Milenio
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13 Comments
De donde vrgs sacan que los MF van ganando…los que somos de Sinaloa sabemos que nomas entran a Culiacan los mayos a hacer un cagadero
llevan la delantera si. les an matado mucha gente y capturado. los volteados el gobierno solo ataca territorios de ellos aun que unltimamente andan en el sur de culiacan. creo que la delantera que llevan es los volteados. si no de costa rica no pasan.
What is happening in Sinaloa is a perfect example of “divide and conquer”. The US knew exactly what would happen when it set El Mayo up to be betrayed. They also don’t care who ends up victorious, it’s irrelevant. One side will be destroyed and the other weakened by war. JSOC will then set out to snatch or kill the “winning” side’s leadership via joint operations with the Mexican Navy or unilateral direct action when deemed necessary. The next year will be… interesting.
h🐙
Interesting, albeit brief article I was reading, an op-ed piece.
Discussing the visible hierarchy of power located in the Mexican embassy-CIA [which shares the same floor as the ambassador, DEA, and HSI on the lower floors-
My question, if zambada is winning so decisively why is he resorting to alliances with zetas. Also why would el guano side with Zambadas over his nephews?
Even if Mayos win they will start fighting internally. Either BLO takes over or Durango forms its own cartel.
Mayos aren’t winning. They had momentum when the CH allies flipped in the north — but that’s gone. The CH/CDG/CJNG alliance has it now, and Durango’s so-called stronghold is starting to crack.
There’s no path to victory for Mayiza under Mayito Flaco. None.
Alejandro Cabrera holds the real power, offering MF a safe haven in Durango.
My prediction? Alejandro will hand MF over — and he’ll do it with Ruso’s backing.
Interesting thanks for chiming in
Thank you Mica you’re correct. MF is not a leader and will be killed or betrayed soon. The new Union of CJNG chapos, Guano & La Linea will be the victors & hold all the power. Their next target will be Meza Flores cheers
Not so sure about that, the jaliscas will made their move. Thats their modus operandi, making alliances and then betray them. Did they not snatched them once, why not a second time?
The winner is Mencho
But but I thought he was dead……..
They were not expelled….they were robbed of their belongings and killed!