Trump Reports a 50% Drop in Arms Trafficking to Mexico, but Experts Question the Claim

The Donald Trump administration reported a nearly 50% drop in the seizure of weapons being illegally trafficked into Mexico; however, experts warn that this is due to a reduction in enforcement operations rather than an actual decline in trafficking.

To discuss this further, we are joined by Arturo Ángel, a contributor to Milenio. Good afternoon, Arturo—how are you?

Hello, how are you? Good afternoon from here in New York.

It’s certainly an interesting topic, given that weapons have always been a concern for Mexico—and obviously for the United States, but even more so for Mexico, right? What dos this shift in routes mean, in light of the findings revealed in this report?

Well, for starters, the figure itself might seem positive. As you just mentioned—and as we published today in Milenio—according to official figures from U.S. Customs and Border Protection, during the first year (or nearly the first year, as the data cut-off was the end of last January) of President Trump’s administration—specifically between February 2016 and January 2017—1,616 firearms were seized at the border; that is, weapons intended to cross from the U.S. side into Mexico.

Of these 1,616 firearms, 1,023 were handguns and 593 were long guns. So, amidst the deployments and operations taking place at the border, U.S. authorities detected that these weapons were destined for illegal entry into Mexico and seized them.

On the surface, the data appears positive, showing a 50% reduction compared to the previous year—specifically the period from February 2024 to January 2025, when 3,179 weapons were seized at the border. The official logic, therefore, is that a 50% drop in seizures implies that far fewer weapons are crossing the border.

However, specialists and lawmakers involved in investigating these issues have pointed out that the situation may not necessarily mean fewer weapons are getting through. Instead, two other factors could be at play: one is a potential reduction in inspections and operations aimed at detecting arms shipments.

This point is raised in an analysis by Henry Simer, a research associate with the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington.

He notes—recalling the impact that President Trump’s policies on combating undocumented migration had on anti-trafficking efforts last year—that personnel from agencies like the ATF (which focuses on investigations designed to launch operations to detect and halt the flow of weaponry were affected. Well, nearly 1,000 agents from this agency were reassigned—specifically to matters involving the monitoring of undocumented individuals, right?

Regarding this—I repeat—reorientation carried out by the president’s administration, this researcher notes that the number of weapons [seized] is actually dropping—or rather, inspections are falling off—due to the reduction in personnel deployed at the border.

In fact, earlier this year, José, 29 Democratic senators sent a letter to the U.S. President regarding the 80% reduction in ATF personnel, pointing out that a year into his administration. There is a reduction of practically 80% in the personnel deployed by this agency. In fact, the letter states verbatim:

“The fight against firearms trafficking has been dismantled at the ATF by reassigning 80% of special agents to immigration cases. This has put the agency on a path toward a 90% decrease in dealer license revocations—its most effective tool for dismantling arms trafficking.”

So, what researchers and opponents are arguing is that efforts on the U.S. side—specifically regarding inspections—are being weakened. Add to that another important element—which we also detailed today in our report “Arizona Overtakes Texas as Source of Weapons”—regarding the trafficking routes documented by U.S. organizations specializing in this issue.

They obtained a database covering the last 10 years showing the origins of weapons seized in Mexico; whenever a weapon—especially a high-powered one—is seized in Mexico, a check is performed to determine where it likely came from. And what they discovered, Josué, is that while Texas had historically been the state where the bulk of these weapons were purchased, since 2022, nearly 60% of the U.S.-sourced weapons seized in Mexico actually originated from gun shops in Arizona.

So, what is being observed is a shift among arms traffickers: instead of turning to gun shops in Texas, they are now going to Arizona—specifically Maricopa County and the Phoenix metropolitan area. It’s estimated that more than 50% of the weapons recovered after leaving the U.S. for Mexico come from gun shops in that region. Furthermore—and investigators have flagged this as well—these are weapons purchased by intermediaries.

What is being documented with increasing frequency is that U.S. citizens are the ones buying these weapons—citizens who hold permits and are legal residents, but who are essentially just lending their identities to fill out the paperwork. They then hand over the weapons—some of which are high-powered, such as Barrett rifles—to others. Just a few days ago, my colleague Ángel Hernández reported on Milenio how a rifle of that very type was used in the attack against Omar García Harfuch.

Well, it’s U.S. citizens who are buying these weapons at gun shops in Arizona and then handing them over to arms traffickers; the traffickers provide the money to purchase the guns and pay a fee for the acquisition. Then, Josué, those traffickers are the ones who coordinate with cartel members to smuggle the weapons into Mexico.

It’s interesting to see how this is evolving; while the data might appear positive on the surface, it could be masking a different underlying situation. This is a very serious issue—as you noted—because it points to the United States failing to honor the commitments it made to Mexico regarding efforts to combat arms trafficking into our country. This is certainly a matter the President is likely well aware of and concerned about, and one she will need to address with the relevant U.S. officials.

Alright, Arturo, thank you for covering this topic; we will continue to follow it closely.

Source: Milenio