Is the violence in Baja California Sur truly under control, or are we merely witnessing a temporary lull? The state closed out 2025 with 131 victims of intentional homicide—the highest figure recorded during the administration of Víctor Castro Cosío. This statistic is not insignificant; it represents a 157% increase compared to 2021, when a mere 51 cases were recorded.
Amidst this surge, what emerges is not an isolated phenomenon, but rather the resurgence of internal conflicts within the Sinaloa Cartel—particularly between factions such as the *Mayitos* and the *Chapitos*. Key municipalities—including Los Cabos, La Paz, Comondú, and Loreto—have become battlegrounds for armed clashes, attacks against security forces, and significant drug seizures.
Investigations into potential links between police officers and organized crime have even begun to surface—a factor that has historically exacerbated security crises across various regions of the country. The statistics reveal an erratic trajectory. After rising slightly in 2022, homicides dropped to their lowest point in 2023, with just 27 cases; however, starting in 2024, the trend reversed drastically, ultimately reaching the peak observed in 2025.
And although 2026 appears to tell a different story—with only 19 cases recorded in the first five months—the question remains inevitable: Does this represent a structural improvement, or merely a temporary effect resulting from pressure exerted by federal forces? The current strategy involves the deployment of over 300 personnel throughout the state, alongside a bolstered intelligence effort backed by figures such as Omar García Harfuch.
Local authorities assert that this coordinated approach has enabled a 65% reduction in violence compared to the monthly average of 2025; however, past precedents dictate that caution remains warranted. Recent incidents underscore the fragility of the current situation. On May 30, a clash in Los Cabos left one U.S. citizen dead and several others injured—including military personnel and a minor.
Months earlier, a single violent day had claimed eight victims across various municipalities, including a state police officer. Behind this violence lies a strategic factor that cannot be ignored: geography. Baja California Sur isn’t merely a high-end tourist destination; it is also a key waypoint on maritime routes used to traffic cocaine from South America to Mexico and the United States.
Seizures of tons of narcotics and fuel on the high seas confirm that the state is far more than just a tourist paradise. It is a coveted piece on the map of the drug trade. Added to this is the active presence of criminal cells—remnants of the Beltrán Leyva organization and financial operatives linked to “Los Chapitos”—which keeps the dispute for territorial control alive.
But what do *you* think? Can Baja California Sur avoid a new escalation of violence, despite its strategic value to the drug trade?
Source: Milenio
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