Narcos in Power: How Mexico and the U.S. Are Losing the Drug War

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Author’s Note

This piece aims to provide an objective analysis of the current situation without attributing blame solely to one country. Many journalists tend to have tunnel vision, taking sides based on their home nation. I strive to write without emotion, offering criticism for both Mexico and the United States where it is due.

The Mexican government once held the country together with a delicate bargain: leave the narcos and drug cartels to run their empires, as long as they kept the violence out of sight. That deal has long since collapsed. Today, cartel wars rage in the open, and the relationship between Mexico and the United States, a cornerstone of the fight against organized crime, is disintegrating.

Under President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s “hugs, not bullets” approach, narcos have become bolder, their operations expanding even as murders climb to historic highs. The cartels, now richer than at any point in their history, have also grown more violent and brazen. Their immense wealth, fueled by fentanyl exports, extortion, and territorial dominance, has allowed them to operate as paramilitary organizations, dictating life in vast swaths of Mexico. Now, with Claudia Sheinbaum at the helm, the United States is losing patience, demanding more aggressive action against drug trafficking and the fentanyl pipelines devastating American communities. Mexico, in turn, accuses the U.S. of overreach—and of igniting the cartel wars themselves. This mutual frustration has pushed an already fragile alliance to the brink, with potentially catastrophic consequences for both sides of the border.

Why This Matters

Under AMLO’s “hugs, not bullets” policy and Claudia Sheinbaum’s continuation of a non-confrontational approach, cartels have reached unprecedented levels of power. Wealthier and more violent than ever, they now operate as paramilitary forces controlling large swaths of Mexico. Meanwhile, U.S. officials, frustrated by Mexico’s perceived inaction, argue that violence and the growing fentanyl crisis demand urgent cooperation.

AMLO’s “Hugs, Not Bullets” Approach

Upon assuming office in 2018, AMLO introduced a security strategy dubbed “abrazos, no balazos” (“hugs, not bullets”), aiming to address the root causes of violence through social programs and economic development rather than direct confrontation with drug cartels. This policy marked a departure from previous militarized tactics and focused on poverty alleviation and youth employment.

Critics argue that this approach emboldened narcos and cartels. The lack of aggressive law enforcement allowed these groups to expand their influence, leading to a surge in violence. For example, AMLO’s decision to release Ovidio Guzmán López, son of notorious narco Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, during the 2019 incident known as “Culiacanazo,” demonstrated the government’s inability to stand up to cartel power. That day, Culiacán transformed into a war zone. Heavily armed gunmen paraded through the streets in armored trucks, spraying bullets and setting up roadblocks to force the government into submission. The battle ended in humiliation as authorities released Guzmán to save lives, effectively surrendering to cartel dominance.

Deterioration of Bilateral Cooperation

Mexico’s restrictions on U.S. agents, particularly the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), hindered intelligence sharing and joint operations. In 2020, the Mexican government passed legislation limiting foreign agents’ activities, complicating efforts against narco and cartel networks. Many viewed this move as retaliation for U.S. authorities arresting former Mexican Defense Minister Salvador Cienfuegos on drug charges, which Mexico considered a violation of its sovereignty.

The reduced presence of U.S. agents coincided with a rise in drug-related violence and an increase in fentanyl trafficking into the United States, exacerbating the opioid crisis. The lack of bilateral trust made it easier for drug cartels to operate with impunity.

Sheinbaum’s Continuation of AMLO’s Policies

In October 2024, Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidency, inheriting a complex security landscape. Despite initial hopes for a shift in strategy, Sheinbaum largely continued AMLO’s policies, maintaining the “hugs, not bullets” approach. She emphasized intelligence and investigative work but avoided direct confrontation with drug cartels, hoping to prevent further escalation of violence.

This continuity drew criticism from domestic and international observers. Analysts warned that without a decisive stance against organized crime, drug cartels would continue to expand their operations, undermining the rule of law and threatening regional stability. High homicide rates and brazen cartel activities persisted, exposing the limitations of the current strategy.

Ambassador Salazar’s Critique

In November 2024, U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ken Salazar sharply criticized Mexico’s security policies. He called AMLO’s strategy a failure and accused the government of downplaying the severity of violence. Salazar pointed to escalating incidents in Sinaloa as evidence of the worsening crisis and expressed frustration with Mexico’s unwillingness to collaborate effectively. Speaking freely as a “lame duck” ambassador while President-elect Donald Trump prepares to appoint his own pick, Salazar reflected a growing U.S. impatience with the state of bilateral cooperation.

Cartels’ Escalation in Firepower and Tactics

Over the past five years, drug cartels have significantly expanded their military capabilities, transforming into paramilitary organizations. The top ten cartels maintain units equipped with Browning M2 .50 caliber machine guns, capable of downing aircraft or piercing armored vehicles. These weapons, often smuggled from the U.S. via straw purchasers, fuel the ongoing violence.

Cartels have also embraced advanced technology. Commercial drones, once used for surveillance, are now weaponized to drop grenades or improvised explosives with devastating precision. This evolution allows cartels to strike rivals or government targets remotely, showcasing their growing sophistication and reach.

The Extradition Gesture

Each new Mexican administration has made it a tradition to extradite a high-profile narco to the United States as a gesture of goodwill. While this practice signals a commitment to combating drug trafficking, critics increasingly question its effectiveness. Symbolic moves like these fail to address the systemic issues enabling cartels to thrive.

The Path Forward

The deteriorating relationship between Mexico and the United States in combating drug cartels presents a serious challenge. Mexico’s concerns over sovereignty clash with the U.S.’s demands for more cooperation, leaving both nations vulnerable to the increasing influence of these organizations.

Both countries must recalibrate their strategies. A combination of social programs addressing the root causes of crime and targeted law enforcement actions dismantling drug cartels could offer a sustainable solution. Rebuilding trust and collaboration between the two governments is essential to protect citizens on both sides of the border.

As Sheinbaum’s administration navigates the complexities of cartel violence, the stakes for regional stability and the global fight against organized crime could not be higher.

Mica’s Analysis

The evolving dynamics between Mexico and the United States in their joint efforts to combat narcos and drug cartels highlight a complex and multifaceted challenge. AMLO’s “hugs, not bullets” strategy emboldened narcos, critics argue, due to a lack of aggressive enforcement. Sheinbaum’s continuation of these policies has only reinforced concerns about Mexico’s inability to confront organized crime effectively.

Cartels have become paramilitary forces controlling entire regions, fueled by unprecedented wealth and tactical innovation. Yet, both nations continue to approach the crisis as though it can be contained by focusing on narcos and addicts alone, ignoring the systemic failures that allow these networks to thrive. The Mexican government must stop pretending that cartels are not a problem. Turning a blind eye to their control over regions, economies, and lives has only entrenched their power.

Likewise, the United States should stop pacifying addicts and believing that rehab will solve everything. Without addressing the conditions that fuel demand—poverty, mental health crises, and an overwhelmed healthcare system—the drug trade will continue to thrive, with cartels profiting off American dependence.

I want to be optimistic, but I can’t find anything positive to say toward improving the situation. It feels as though we’ve crossed the point of no return. Without a recalibrated, united strategy, the story of cartels and narcos will continue to be written in blood, profits, and failure on both sides of the border.