Inegi Reveals Increase in Insecurity in Los Cabos and La Paz: How is it Related to the Sinaloa Cartel?

Two of the area’s main tourist destinations have been overshadowed by the activities of criminal groups

The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) published the latest edition of the National Urban Public Security Survey (ENSU), corresponding to the second quarter of 2025.

A review of the results shows a notable increase in the perception of insecurity in La Paz and Los Cabos, two of the most important tourist areas in Baja California Sur.

In the case of La Paz, 36.7% of the surveyed population reported feeling unsafe, compared to 27.8% at the end of the first quarter of the year. In Los Cabos, the percentage increased from 24.7 to 36. What could be the reason for this increase, and how might it be related to the Sinaloa Cartel? We at MILENIO tell you.

The shadow of the Sinaloa Cartel extends to Baja California Sur

Throughout 2024, the Los Cabos region recorded the arrival of 3.74 million visitors, according to data published by the Tourism Trust (Fiturca). In June of that year, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) identified that the perception of insecurity in this area was one of the lowest in the country at just 16.7%, behind only San Pedro Garza García (Nuevo León) and Piedras Negras (Coahuila).

However, the situation underwent a drastic change during the first half of 2025. The United States, from which more than 1.8 million visitors arrived last year, issued an advisory recommending that its citizens in Los Cabos and La Paz take precautionary measures in the face of the wave of violence unleashed by criminal groups. Specifically, US authorities referred to events that occurred during the last days of April.

On the 22nd of that month, Ulises Omar Cota Montaño, commander of the Ministerial Criminal Investigation Agency (AMIC) and nephew of former governor Leonel Cota, was murdered. Initial reports indicated that the officer was off duty when a group of hitmen intercepted him in the El Progreso neighborhood of La Paz.

After the crime, a pair of narco-banners appeared in two different locations, using which Abraham Cervantes Escárrega, alias El Babay, claimed responsibility for the murder and threatened security forces.

El Babay was arrested in 2017 and identified as an alleged member of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). However, in April 2025, it was announced that he had been released and had formed an alliance with Los Mayos of the Sinaloa Cartel to fight for the state’s territory against Los Chapitos, a rival cell.

Information obtained by MILENIO indicates that in that month alone, more than 40 narco-banners were recorded in Los Cabos, La Paz, Comondú, and Mulegé, in which the criminal factions blamed each other for the violence in the state.

The dispute between the Mayos and Chapitos allegedly escalated abruptly following an armed attack on April 16 targeting a stepson of René Bastidas Mercado, alias El 00, the operator of Los Chapitos in the region.

On April 23 and 24, public transportation service in Los Cabos was severely disrupted and even suspended after at least three vehicles were set on fire by suspected criminals.

The Secretariat of Security and Citizen Protection (SSPC) led a joint investigation that led to the identification of a home—in the Arcos del Sol neighborhood of Los Cabos—where the alleged arsonists were hiding.

Four men between the ages of 22 and 29 were apprehended, along with seven firearms, cartridges, magazines, and communication equipment.

On April 25, the head of the SSPC, Omar García Harfuch, announced the arrest of seven individuals who allegedly participated in the murder of Ulises Cota Montaño. Among those arrested was Marcos Iván ‘N’, alias Marquitos, identified as the leader of a cell associated with Los Mayos in the La Paz and Los Cabos area.

Data from the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System (SESNSP) reveal that between January and March 2025, Baja California Sur recorded a total of 34 homicides, but for the April-June quarter, the number reached 69, more than double.

The dispute between factions of the Sinaloa cartel and the rearrangements resulting from the conflict that broke out in Sinaloa in 2024 could be factors that help explain the upturn in the perception of insecurity reported by INEGI (National Institute of Statistics and Geography).

Furthermore, the above seems to reinforce the hypothesis that the state is not only a strategic point for drug trafficking, but that other illicit businesses such as sexual exploitation, alcohol sales, and e-cigarette marketing also make Baja California Sur a profitable “plaza” for criminal organizations.

Sources: Fuentes de Inteligencia, Milenio