Mexican Mathematician Uses Models to Reveal How Many Members Cartels Have in Mexico

The journal Nature published an article on the work of Mexican mathematician Rafael Curiel, whose models reveal patterns in the criminal activity of Mexican cartels and provide avenues for more effective actions to combat them. 

Thanks to these models, he was able to calculate that cartels in Mexico had approximately 175,000 members three years ago, in 2023, making them the fifth largest employer in Mexico at that time. 

He also identified that these groups maintained their structure through recruitment and that, if current trends continue, Mexican criminal organizations will be 26% larger by 2027. 

In an interview for this publication, he explained that some indicators of cartel dynamics include fluctuations in the prison population, extortion, robberies, and the perception of insecurity. 

He added that mathematical models can help improve the effectiveness of social programs and the investment required in key areas, given the shortcomings of social reintegration and the impunity surrounding crime, in order to keep young people away from criminal activity. 

What is needed? More science, more mathematics, more economics, more actuarial science—more of everything—to first create a better anti-recruitment program, but also to improve the allocation of social programs. 

Countries in the region like Colombia, Costa Rica, and Chile are investing nearly three times more in security, and these countries—Colombia, Costa Rica, and Chile—have lower homicide rates per capita than Mexico. 

Of course, this allows them to do much more, because the budget allows you to solve problems, for example, impunity, to invest in judges, to invest in police investigations, and we see the problem of security as simply putting a large police presence, many people dressed in blue on the streets; that’s what will give us a security system. But we don’t realize that what lead us there is impunity.

Source: Milenio